Everybody seems to be saying, In fact the flavour in the entire street seems to be that markets are going to hit 14000 very soon. Its really strange how dalal street and technical analysts works. Two days market falls and the entire street turns bearish giving you 10 reasons on why the market is going to fall further, same way when the markets starts to rally on 2 days post that, somehow those reasons start to vanish instantly. Its no wonder that majority people lose money in this field, they’re too engrossed trying to look for reasons.
The markets or Nifty has seen a huge rally from 11500 odd levels to 13100. This has come non stop and is the most ‘fierce rally’ that I have seen in my trading career. While everybody expects the rally to continue to 14000, I am going to stick my neck out and say that the rally will go all the way upto almost 15000, if not more by the coming year end. Lot of you might feel that “What is this whacko talking ? ” Nifty at 15000 ? Really ? Hell Yes ! And let time tell us on whether this will be true or not. Note : The kind of FII flows that we have witnessed this month is at record highs and is only the start. There are many factors that lead me to believe this… But I will sum it up in one word “Liquidity”.
Having said that, It is also important to keep in mind that this rally has been one sided and very fast. Which essentially implies that the correction will be equally steep. It is important for us to watch out for the same.. And this correction might I add will be the best entry point for those who have missed the bus for this rally. For all those who feel the correction wont come ! WAIT !!
Now coming to being stock specific, we were bang on in all our positions from last time. Dr Reddy had a range bound movement the whole month. Tata Motors had a wild swing as expected by us. This time around I’m expecting Bank Nifty to give a wild swing and hence have planned some long strangles for December. Have also entered BPCL and Bharati Airtel for the longer term. I’m also entering a `13000 short straddle with offset units for the month of December to name a few. But, Before I end, something for everybody to keep in mind is that that the Index today is far away from its mean. The target of 15000 for forthcoming year end ! and not by December or Jan.
