Rahul Ghose of Hedged expects the Nifty to be stronger than Bank Nifty once the rebound starts.
Rahul Ghose of Hedged believes the Nifty is currently close to the current bottom with a maximum of 500 points on the downside from here.
Looking at a larger view, “I don’t expect the Nifty to give goods return this year. The best case upside according to me is 27,200,” he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
According to the CEO of Hedged, FMCG is looking good for 2025 along with some heavy weights like Larsen & Toubro and Reliance Industries. This would be a good point to start to accumulating these heavy weights, said Rahul with nearly two decades of financial market experience.
After analysing the charts and other technical factors, do you foresee a high possibility of a rebound in the Nifty 50 later this week?
There is no evidence on the charts that suggests that Nifty will have a pull back later this week. However, I will say that Nifty is currently close to the current bottom with a maximum of 500 points on the downside from here. Looking at a larger view, I don’t expect the Nifty to give goods return this year. The best case upside according to me is 27,200 which is hardly 1,000 points higher than the previous high.
What can you infer from the options data?
The Options data from when Nifty was at 23,500 has signalled strong Put writing. This has been the primary reason why Put writers have been further selling heavy quantity Puts and have constantly been getting trapped on the wrong side of things. The big 200-300-point down move days this month is testament to the above fact. Even now as we speak, we have Put writing in very large quantities at the 22,500 level and some writing still at 22,700 and 22,800 which is In the money.
Do you think Bank Nifty will start the March series on a strong note?
On the contrary I expect Nifty to be stronger than Bank Nifty once the rebound starts.
Which two stocks are your top picks for the short term, especially after the ongoing correction?
KPIT Technologies and Indian Hotels are looking ok on the charts for the very near term. Both are in demand zones and in a falling market has managed to weather the storm.
From a longer-term perspective, FMCG is looking good for 2025 along with some heavy weights like Larsen & Toubro and Reliance Industries. This would be a good point to start accumulating these heavy weights.
Do you believe the Nifty IT index has completed its correction now?
The short answer is NO. But the IT pack unfortunately cannot be looked at as a whole at this juncture. There are some good names like Infosys, KPIT Technologies which can be looked at for the near term, but the rest could see some more pain. In fact, I would stick my neck out and say that IT could have a time correction as well and not necessarily only a price correction this year. Hence from both points of view, it wouldn’t be prudent to invest into this sector right now.
Are you bullish on Chambal Fertilisers?
Yes, I am bullish on Chambal with a near-term target of 10% higher from current levels. The stock can also be accumulated around the Rs 550 levels on a small dip for the short term as well.
Are the charts convincing you to bet on Mahindra & Mahindra?
Here’s the dilemma, from the charts point of view M&M is not convincing but from a fundamental standpoint it is looking ok. Tata Motors on the other hand is looking better from a charts point of view. Out of the two, one can look to buy Tata Motors in a close above Rs 695 with a stop-loss at Rs 650 level.
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